The global temperature forecast from Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) indicates that 2026 will likely be the third hottest year on record, rivaling 2025 and cooler than 2024, the hottest year ever recorded and the first to cross the 1.5 °C threshold established by the Paris Agreement.
ECCC’s Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) is forecasting a global mean surface temperature in 2026 of 1.44 ± 0.09 °C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900). This implies that 2026 will likely be slightly cooler than 2025, currently the second hottest year on record at XX ± XX °C according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). This observed value closely aligns with ECCC’s prediction for 2025 (to within XX °C).