Climate Data in Action: Supporting Canada’s Maple Syrup Production

Introduction

Canada’s maple syrup industry is deeply rooted in history and tradition, dating back centuries to when Indigenous Peoples first discovered the process of tapping maple trees for sap. Today, Canada is the world’s leading producer of maple syrup, contributing to over 70% of the global supply, with the majority coming from Quebec (89.9%), New Brunswick (5.1%), Ontario (4.8%), and Nova Scotia (less than 1%)[1]. The production of maple syrup is not only an important economic driver to Canada – with Canadian exports of maple products amounting to $615 million in 2023 – it also connects generations of producers to consumers from across the country and the globe. In many ways, it’s a source of national pride.

However, the impacts of climate change pose a growing challenge to maple syrup production, requiring adaptation to ensure the long-term viability of the industry. Changing temperatures and shifting seasonal patterns affect sap flow, potentially reducing yields and economic returns. Proactive measures can help to preserve the economic value of the industry and its cultural significance.

Maple trees—and the sap they produce—are highly sensitive to climate. The quality and quantity of syrup can be impacted by many climatic factors including cold winter temperatures, freeze-thaw cycles, and the timing of the last spring frost. In this article, we discuss how climate data from ClimateData.ca can be used to analyze changes in these climate variables in your area to guide decisions around future maple syrup production.

How does climate change impact maple syrup production?

Canada’s climate is warming at nearly twice the global average[2], with winters experiencing the most warming of any season[3]. This warming may have several impacts on maple syrup production.

Shorter and Less Predictable “Sugaring Seasons”

Sap flows when daytime temperatures rise above 0°C and nighttime temperatures drop below freezing. These “freeze-thaw” cycles create pressure changes in sugar maples, allowing sap to flow. Warmer temperatures are causing the maple sap season to start earlier and end sooner, with fewer cold nights to drive these essential freeze-thaw cycles.

In Nova Scotia, where sap yields have declined by 40% over the last 15-20 years, the season begins an average of 5 days earlier (from an average start date of March 16-23 from from 1986-1990, to March 6-11 from 2009-2013)[4]. Other research in this field suggests that the sap season in Eastern Canada could begin 15-19 days earlier by the end of the century (compared to 1971-2000) and will be more variable under a high emissions scenario[5].

Increased Tree Stress and Mortality

Rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns could make maple trees more vulnerable to pests and diseases. Moreover, extreme weather events, such as droughts, heatwaves, ice storms, and tornados further stress trees and reduce yields (Box 1).

Loss of cold temperatures

Across Canada, winters are warming faster than any other season. Cold temperatures are not only required to drive sap flow. Prolonged periods of cold allow sugar maples to properly prepare for spring growth, and research has shown that warming winters can lower maple syrup yield and lead to less sugary maple syrup[5].

Warmer winter temperatures may also shift the geographic range of ideal climate conditions for maple syrup production northward[6]. While regions like northern Quebec and Labrador may become more suitable for maple growth in the future, the Maritime provinces, eastern Ontario, and the St. Lawrence River’s south shore could experience less favorable growing conditions[7].

Box 1: Extreme weather is another climate risk with which maple syrup producers need to contend

In 2019, in Quebec’s Beauce region, between 15,000 and 20,000 maple trees were uprooted by a tornado. Almost 5,000 of those maple trees belonged to one family. “It will take two to three generations before it goes back to what it was,” said Fleury, one of the affected producers.

Read the full story here: Quebec maple producers devastated after tornado destroys over 15,000 trees | CBC News

How Climate Data and Tools Can Support the Future of Maple Syrup

The following sections showcase some of the many datasets and tools available on ClimateData.ca and provide examples of how these products can be used to understand the impacts of weather and climate on maple syrup production in Canada.

Seasonal Forecast Products – Coming Soon to ClimateData.ca

Seasonal forecasts can be used to understand how the sugaring season might be impacted from year-to-year. For example, if we look at Environment and Climate Change Canada’s seasonal forecast for this spring, it indicates that for the period of March to May 2025, daily mean temperatures are expected to be warmer than average across the key maple syrup-producing provinces (Figure 1). Quebec, Ontario, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia have a 33% to 70% probability of experiencing above-normal temperatures for March, April, and May compared to the 1991-2020 climate normal. This forecast suggests that the sugaring season is likely to start earlier and may be shorter in these regions.

Figure 1: Environment and Climate Change Canada’s Seasonal Forecast for this spring season (March, April, May 2025). The map illustrates the probability of regions of Canada experiencing below (blue), near normal (purple-pink), and above normal (yellow to red) temperatures compared to the 1991-2020 winter average.

Future Climate Projections: Computable Indices for Maple Syrup Production

ClimateData.ca’s Interactive Map Page, Analyze Tool, and Spatial Analogues App can be used to examine the projected, long-term changes in key climate indicators related to maple syrup production. Here we provide a few examples of these data in action.

Date of Last Spring Frost

As noted earlier, for sap to flow, daytime temperatures need to climb above 0°C and overnight temperatures need to drop below freezing. Here we use ClimateData.ca to compute the day of the last spring frost – the spring date after which there are no daily minimum temperatures projected to be colder than 0°C. This calculation was performed across the Chaudière-Appalaches region in southern Quebec, one of many regions in Quebec known for its syrup production.

Figure 2: The projected date of the last spring frost under a moderate emissions scenario (green line, SSP2-4.5), and a high emissions scenario (red, SSP5-8.5) from 1950 to 2100 (gray delineates the historical modelled period).

Figure 2 shows that in a high emissions scenario (red), the average date of last spring frost in the Chaudière-Appalaches region in southern Quebec is projected to occur as early as April 7th by the end of the century, more than a month sooner compared to the historical baseline. Earlier last spring frost days could mean the sugaring season could start and end earlier.

Understanding How Winter Temperatures are Changing

The following table shows average winter (defined here as December, January, February) temperatures in the Chaudière-Appalaches region during the historical period (1971-2000) and for two different emissions scenario projections by end of this century. The table below shows that the Chaudière-Appalaches region in Quebec could see an increase in average winter temperatures of 5.1°C to 7.7°C by the end of the century.

Historical (1971-2000) Future (2071-2100) under a Moderate Emissions Scenario (SSP2-4.5) Future (2071-2100) under the Highest Emissions Scenario on ClimateData.ca (SSP5-8.5)
Mean Winter (DJF) temperature (°C) -10.7 °C -5.6 °C -3.0 °C

*Median of 26 CMIP6 Global Climate Models shown here. Visit the interactive map page for more time periods, scenarios, and percentiles.

Illustrating the Magnitude of Expected Changes in Climate with Spatial Analogues

The Spatial Analogues App on ClimateData.ca is a powerful way to illustrate the magnitude of climate change for specific cities. In the example below, we select Quebec City as the target location and use the spatial analogue app to identify present-day cities in North America with similar climatic characteristics to Quebec City’s projected future, based on the following three variables: the Date of Last Spring Frost, Degree Days (base 10°C), and Mean Annual Temperature. According to the app, Madison, Wisconsin, is the best match for Quebec City’s projected future climate, with an “excellent” fit.

Adaptation Strategies for Maple Syrup Production

There are several adaptation strategies that can support the production of maple syrup in a changing climate. The “Map of Adaptation Actions” on the Canada in a Changing Climate website features an example on adaptation strategies that can be taken by maple producers in Quebec, including using weather forecasting tools, tapping trees earlier (such as in January), and enhancing biodiversity within maple trees to boost their resilience to drought and pests[8]. Adaptation strategies to help the maple syrup industry in a changing climate may include:

  • Genetic selection, tree breeding, and assisted migration: Research is underway to identify maple varieties more resilient to changing climatic conditions, including those that can maintain sap production in warmer winters. Studies have suggested that selective breeding could help develop trees better adapted to new environmental conditions[9]. Other researchers recommend assisting with the northward migration of maple trees, by planting diversified maple trees at the northern limit of the area where the favourable conditions for maple trees already exist [7].
  • Improved sap collection methods and earlier tapping: Advances in maple production technology and techniques can help maximize yields even in suboptimal weather conditions[6] and have already been effective at producing more yield despite a warming climate[8]. These technologies allow producers to extract more sap per tree and extend production windows[10].
  • Diversification of production: Some producers are exploring alternative maple tree species (e.g., silver maple), or other tree species entirely, such as birch or walnut, which can also produce syrup and may be more suited to future climate conditions. Birch syrup production, for instance, has gained attention as an alternative in areas where sugar maple viability is declining[6].
  • Sustainable forest management: Maintaining healthy maple forests through sustainable forestry practices, including liming, thinning, pest management, and soil conservation, can improve resilience to pests, disease, and extreme weather events associated with climate change[9]. Studies suggest these interventions can improve tree health and sap production stability[4].

Looking Forward

Maple syrup production in Canada is vulnerable to climate change. While climate change presents challenges to traditional sugaring practices, proactive adaptation efforts can help preserve this iconic industry. Understanding future climate conditions through tools like ClimateData.ca allows producers, policymakers, and researchers to make informed decisions to support the long-term sustainability of maple syrup production.

To explore how climate change may affect maple syrup production in your region and to support climate-informed decisions, we encourage you to visit ClimateData.ca for more information, resources, and case studies.

References

[1] Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. (2025). Statistical Overview of the Canadian Maple Industry 2023.

[2] Zhang, X., Flato, G., Kirchmeier-Young, M., Vincent, L., Wan, H., Wang, X., Rong, R., Fyfe, J., Li, G., Kharin, V.V. (2019): Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Across Canada; Chapter 4 in Bush, E. and Lemmen, D.S. (Eds.) Canada’s Changing Climate Report. Government of Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, pp 112-193.

[3] Environment and Climate Change Canada. (2024). Climate Trends and Variations Bulletin – Winter 2023-2024. ISSN: 2367-9794.

[4] Lada, R., Nelson,K., Thiagarajan, A. (2014). Climate Change Impacts on Maple Syrup Yield in Nova Scotia. Maple Research Program.

[5] Houle, D., Paquette, A., Côté, B., Logan, T., Power, H., Charron, I., & Duchesne, L. (2015). Impacts of climate change on the timing of the production season of maple syrup in

Eastern Canada. PLoS One, 10(12), e0144844.

[6] Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). (2025). Climate Change Connections: Vermont (Maple Syrup).

[7] Pelletier, D. (2023). Maple Syrup is under threat. Radio Canada. Maple syrup is under threat | Radio-Canada.ca

[8] Legault, S., Houle, D., Plouffe, A., Ameztegui, A., Kuehn, D., Chase, L., Blondlot, A. and Perkins, T.D. (2019). Perceptions of U.S. and Canadian maple syrup producers toward climate change, its impacts, and potential adaptation measures. PLoS ONE, 14(4), e0215511. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0215511

[9] Natural Resources Canada. (2025). Maple Syrup Production and Climate Change: Does the Future Taste as Sweet?

[10] Duchesne, L. et al. (2009). Modelling the effect of climate on maple syrup production in Québec, Canada. Forest Ecology and Management.