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Public Health and Future Climate

Welcome to the Health sector information page. Learn how climate change impacts this sector, explore how climate information can be used in decision-making through case study examples, quickly access relevant climate data, and discover other resources to support adaptation planning.

There is scientific consensus that the climate is changing, mainly as a result of human activity, and that this situation directly endangers the health of populations. The gradual global warming and the hydrometeorological hazards which result from it (heatwaves, floods) can have consequences for health care systems and public health. Crucial public health elements affected can include the quality of air, water, foodstuffs, and housing, all of which increase the risk of disease (zoonotic or chronic).The consequences of the impacts of climate change on public health affect the physical, mental and social health of populations in three different ways1 (see Figure 1):Direct exposure to extreme events (e.g., heatwaves and flooding):

  • Extreme heat can lead to dehydration, heat stroke, and death. The elderly and those with existing medical conditions, but also outdoor workers, athletes and the homeless, are particularly vulnerable to extreme heat conditions. As Canada’s climate warms, the frequency and severity of heatwaves are expected to increase2 and also to start affecting areas such as Canada’s north which are less prepared to cope with extreme temperatures.
  • Flooding can directly endanger life and prevent access to health infrastructure such as hospitals, clinics and pharmacies. Critical infrastructure such as waste water treatment plants may be overwhelmed leading to contamination of water bodies and an increased risk of waterborne disease.

Indirect exposure mediated by natural systems (e.g., Lyme disease or pollen)

  • Warmer conditions may lead to an earlier start to, and a longer growing season for plants which have highly allergenic pollen3.
  • Pests and diseases whose range is limited by temperature may become prevalent in areas where they are currently absent. For example, the range of the black-legged tick, which carries the bacteria causing Lyme disease, will expand as the climate warms4.
  • Extreme heat can also lead to a build-up of air pollution, e.g., ground-level ozone, thus decreasing air quality and causing respiratory illness. Hot and dry conditions can also lead to more wild fires, more smoke and decreased air quality5.

Indirect exposure mediated by social and economic disruption (e.g., vulnerable populations disproportionately impacted, planning for mass evacuations in times of pandemic):

  • An increase in the frequency of weather-related disasters has psychological impacts which may increase the risk of mental illness and anxiety6,7.
  • Warmer conditions in Canada’s north are already leading to thawing permafrost, and changes in snow and ice conditions are impacting the way of life. With continued warming, traditional hunting and harvesting activities will become more challenging and food insecurity will increase. Warmer winters mean a shorter ice road season which reduces the time available to resupply remote communities, also leading to an increase in food insecurity. Community access to emergency medical care and services may also be threatened. Loss of traditional food sources has a profound impact on the cultural and spiritual well-being of indigenous peoples8.

These health impacts are then passed on to the entire population through a domino effect by overwhelming the access, quality and resilience of infrastructure, social and public services, the economy, in addition to increasing existing social and economic inequalities.

Figure 1: Diagram of the trajectories by which climate change affects health and the simultaneous and modifying influence of environmental, social and health system factors.

Source9: Adapted from Confalonieri et al, 2007

Added to the visible damage already caused by the impacts of climate change (e.g., total loss of natural and human habitats following floods or forest fires, population displacement due to coastal erosion, deadly heatwaves) are the less visible, but just as critical, progressive consequences such as profound changes in biodiversity10, increase in diseases transmitted by animals (zoonoses)11, increase in chronic diseases12 or even in the percentage of population suffering from eco-anxiety13.

It is therefore important that decision-makers act quickly to put in place strategies to reduce and adapt to climate change.  To facilitate this process, ClimateData.ca presents several case studies which illustrate best practices on how climate data can be used to contribute to adaptation efforts.

Extreme events, particularly extreme heat, have been identified as having the most significant impacts on the health of Canadians. ClimateData.ca provides a number of heat-related climate indices, as well as a case study describing the impact of heatwaves in the province of Quebec. Other climate variables related to heat include the number of days with maximum temperatures above a variety of temperature thresholds and tropical nights (when minimum temperatures do not fall below specified temperature thresholds), both of which are available for low, moderate and high emissions scenarios. Recognizing that Canada’s vastness means that it is not reasonable to try and define a single heatwave index which has relevance across the country, a number of heatwave indices may be calculated on the Download page using custom temperature threshold values.

Another growing public health concern is the increasing incidence of Lyme disease, and the potential for its further spread across Canada as the climate warms. The survival of the black-legged tick, the main vector of Lyme disease, is partially dependent on temperature (annual accumulation in excess of 2800 degree days above 0°C) and, as the climate warms, its range is projected to increase14. ClimateData.ca provides this accumulated degree day index and thus allows users to determine how this tick’s range may change in the future. The accompanying case study for Ontario also details possible adaptation actions to reduce exposure to ticks.

Both extreme heat and Lyme disease are also explored in a case study summarising a report from the Conservation Council of New Brunswick15 on the effects of climate change on the physical and mental wellbeing of people in 16 communities in that province. The impacts of drought on human health and well-being across the southern Prairies and in the interior of British Columbia, are also described in a case study focused on these regions.

Climate change impacts not only the health of Canadians, but also health systems, the hospitals and other infrastructure required to deliver health services to people. These systems are also vulnerable to climate change, not only through extreme events, such as floods, heatwaves and wild fires, which directly impact their operations, but also via the gradual change in climate over time. This will impact the efficiency of, for example, heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, which may more frequently experience conditions outside of their operating design range. In order to continue to deliver health services efficiently, health systems will need to become increasingly resilient to climate change. Relevant climate indices and options to increase building resiliency in the face of climate change are explored in a case study using examples from British Columbia16,17.

The recent report Health of Canadians in a Changing Climate: Advancing Our Knowledge for Action “… assesses the latest research and knowledge to inform Canadians about the effects of climate change on health and health systems, populations most at risk of these effects, and the adaptation measures being taken in Canada.” It is an invaluable resource to explore these issues further.


1. Smith KR, Woodward A, Campbell-Lendrum D, Chadee DD, Honda Y, Liu Q, Olwoch JM, Revich B, Sauerborn R (2014): Human health: impacts, adaptation, and co-benefits. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field CB, Barros VR, Dokken DJ, Mach KJ, Mastrandrea MD, Bilir TE, Chatterjee M, Ebi KL, Estrada YO, Genova RC, Girma B, Kissel ES, Levy AN, MacCracken S, Mastrandrea PR, White LL (Eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 709-754.

2. Warren F, Lulham N, Editors (2021). Canada in a Changing Climate: National Issues Report; Government of Canada, Ottawa, ON. http://www.changingclimate.ca/National-Issues

3. Anderegg WRL, Abatzoglou JT, Anderegg LD, Bielory L, Kinney PL, Ziska L (2021): Anthropogenic climate change is worsening North American pollen seasons. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118(7) e2013284118; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2013284118

4. Bouchard C, Dibernardo A, Koffi J, Wood H, Leighton PA, Lindsay LR (2019): Increased risk of tick-borne diseases with climate and environmental changes. Canadian Communicable Disease Report 45(4): 83-9. https://doi.org/10.14745/ccdr.v45i04a02

5. Finlay S, Moffat A, Gazzard R, Baker D, Murray V (2012): Health impacts of wildfires. PLoS Currents, November 2, Edition 1, doi:10.1371/4f959951cce2c

6. Fernandez A, Black J, Jones M, Wilson L, Salvador-Carulla L, Astell-Burt T, Black D (2015): Flooding and Mental Health: A Systematic Mapping Review. PLoS ONE 10(4): e0119929. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0119929

7. Goldmann E, Galea S (2014):  Mental health consequences of disasters. Annual Review of Public Health 35: 169-183. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-publhealth-032013-182435

8. Clark DG, Ness R, Coffman D, Beugin D (2021): The Health Costs of Climate Change: How Canada Can Adapt, Prepare and Save Lives. Canadian Institute for Climate Choices, 65pp. https://climatechoices.ca/reports/the-health-costs-of-climate-change/

9. Confalonieri U, Menne B, Akhtar R, Ebi KL, Hauengue M, Kovats RS, Revich B, Woodward A (2007): Human Health. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE [Eds]), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 391-431

10. FAQ 2.1: Will species become extinct with climate change and is there anything we can do to prevent this? Chapter 2: Terrestrial and Freshwater Ecosystems and Their Services | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (ipcc.ch). In: Parmesan C, Morecroft MD, Trisurat Y, Adrian R, Anshari GZ, Arneth A, Gao Q, Gonzalez P, Harris R, Price J, Stevens N, Talukdar GH (2022): Terrestrial and Freshwater Ecosystems and their Services. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Pörtner H-O, Roberts DC, Tignor M, Poloczanska ES, Mintenbeck K, Alegría A, Craig M, Langsdorf S, Löschke S, Möller V, Okem A, Rama B (Eds)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 197-377, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.004.

11. FAQ 2.2 | How does climate change increase the risk of diseases? Chapter 2: Terrestrial and Freshwater Ecosystems and Their Services | Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (ipcc.ch). In: Parmesan C, Morecroft MD, Trisurat Y, Adrian R, Anshari GZ, Arneth A, Gao Q, Gonzalez P, Harris R, Price J, Stevens N, Talukdar GH (2022): Terrestrial and Freshwater Ecosystems and their Services. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Pörtner H-O, Roberts DC, Tignor M, Poloczanska ES, Mintenbeck K, Alegría A, Craig M, Langsdorf S, Löschke S, Möller V, Okem A, Rama B (Eds)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 197-377, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.004.

12. Kjellstrom T, Butler AJ, Lucas RM, Benita R (2010): Public health impact of global heating due to climate change: potential effects on chronic non-communicable diseases. International Journal of Public Health 55: 97–103. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00038-009-0090-2

13. Clayton S (2020): Climate anxiety: Psychological responses to climate change. Journal of Anxiety Disorders 74: 102263, ISSN 0887-6185, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.janxdis.2020.102263.

14. Ogden NH, St-Onge L, Barker IK, Brazeau S, Bigras-Poulin M, Charron DF, Francis CM, Heagy A, Lindsay LR, Maarouf A, Michel P, Milord F, O’Callaghan CJ, Trudel L, Thompson RA (2008): Risk maps for range expansion of the Lyme disease vector, Ixodes scapularis, in Canada now and with climate change. International Journal of Health Geographics 7: 24. doi:10.1186/1476-072X-7-24.

15. Comeau L, Nunes D (2019): Healthy Climate, Healthy New Brunswickers: A proposal for New Brunswick that cuts pollution and protects health. Retrieved from Fredericton, New Brunswick: https://www.conservationcouncil.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Healthy-Climate-Healthy-New-Brunswickers-1.pdf

16. World Health Organization (2015): Operational Framework for Building Climate Resilient Health Systems. World Health Organization; Geneva, Switzerland. https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/189951/9789241565073_eng.pdf

17. Aubie Vines G, Murdock T, Sobie S, Hohenschau D (2018): Lower Mainland Facilities Management: Moving towards Climate Resilient Health Facilities for Vancouver Coastal Health. Report Prepared for Vancouver Coastal Health; Vancouver, BC, Canada. https://bcgreencare.ca/resource/moving-toward-climate-resilient-health-facilities-vancouver-coastal-health

 

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January 3 2024
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Sector Resources

Learning Zone

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Download

Download available climate data, choose download options to refine your data choice, or use your own settings to obtain location-specific climate indices.

Data by Health Region

Explore climate data tailored specifically for this sector.

Sector Methods

Read about the process of tailoring and curating sector-relevant climate information.

Related Content

Health of Canadians in a Changing Climate: Advancing our Knowledge for Action

The report provides a comprehensive assessment of the latest research on how climate-related hazards, including extreme heat events, wildfires, floods, and ice storms are affecting our health and wellbeing.

Climate Resilient Buildings and Core Public Infrastructure

Environment and Climate Change Canada’s Climate Resilient Buildings and Core Public Infrastructure report provides an assessment of how climatic design data relevant to users of the National Building Code of Canada and the Canadian Highway Bridge Design Code might change as the climate continues to warm. Explore this report to discover sector-relevant climate projections, including an assessment of climate model limitations and an evaluation of uncertainty.

Map of Adaptation Actions

Explore the Map of Adaptation Actions to discover additional examples of adaptation case studies. Use the filter options to go directly to case studies relevant to this sector.

Climate Atlas of Canada

Visit the Climate Atlas’s Topics to learn more about how Canada will be impacted by climate change, and what we can do to manage risks and build resilience.

Seasonal Forecasts

Looking for climate information for the more immediate future? Seasonal forecasts are coming to ClimateData.ca soon, but for the moment you can access short-term forecasts from Environment and Climate Change Canada.

Related Variables

Explore variables which are relevant to this sector.

Hottest Day

Extreme heat impacts everyone, and unless adequate precautions are taken, it may lead to dehydration, heat stroke and death. Outdoor workers, the elderly and children are more vulnerable to extreme heat conditions.

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Days with Humidex above threshold

Extreme heat impacts everyone, and unless adequate precautions are taken, it may lead to dehydration, heat stroke and death. Extreme heat can also lead to a build-up of air pollution, e.g., ground level ozone, thus decreasing air quality and causing respiratory illness.

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Coldest Day

Extreme cold not only increases the risk of cardiovascular disorders, but can also have other physical health impacts, such as frostbite and hypothermia. Cold conditions can aggravate psychological disorders by driving people into isolation.

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Wet Days

Large precipitation amounts can lead to flooding, and impact the operation of waste-water treatment plants. This can lead to contaminations of water bodies and an increased risk of water-borne diseases.

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Tropical Nights (Days with Tmin above threshold)

Warmer overnight temperatures can exacerbate the health impacts of heat waves by reducing the body’s ability to cool overnight during hot weather conditions.

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