Drought

Explore climate indicators and data resources relevant to drought in Canada.

Module

Climate Hazards

Format

Article

Time to completion

15 minutes

Last update: August 2026

NOTE: The information on this page is neither prescriptive nor exhaustive. Content is updated periodically as more information becomes accessible. Readers are encouraged to consider complementary information.

Key message(s) from Canada’s Changing Climate Report 2026

Key Message 5.8: Meteorological and agricultural droughts are projected to be longer and more frequent and intense across central and southern Canada during summer, and to be more prominent with higher amounts of global warming and at the end of the century (high confidence). Summer hydrological droughts are also projected to be longer and more frequent and intense in many regions of southern Canada, mainly because of increased evaporation and lower runoff from mountainous regions (low confidence). Historically, periodic droughts have occurred across much of Canada, but no long-term changes in their frequency are detectable (high confidence).

Future changes in drought in Canada

Drought is a compound hazard, meaning that multiple climate conditions contribute to its occurrence. To better understand drought, this table can be considered with the tables on Extreme heat and heatwaves and Wildfire and fire weather.

This table connects a climate-related hazard with readily available and relevant climate variables and indicators. Knowledge of regional characteristics is key for interpreting and using climate information in local planning. Where possible, project context, local knowledge, traditional knowledge, and/or additional assessments or studies can inform indicator selection and interpretation, to support the link from data to decision-making. Visit the Climate Hazards module to see the full list of hazard tables available, and to view the methodology and inclusion criteria for the tables.

Future changes	Relevant climate variables and indicators	Climate Data Sources*
Changing total precipitation, with changes varying by region and season.	Total precipitation: Total amount of precipitation (in mm) accumulated.	National ClimateData.ca (Total precip; seasonal forecast of total precip) Climate Atlas of Canada (Total precip) Climate data viewer and Climate data extraction tool Climate-Resilient Buildings and Core Public Infrastructure (Annual total precip) Design Value Explorer (Annual total precip) PCIC Climate Explorer (Annual total precip in wet days) Regional Quebec: Climate Portraits (Accumulated precipitation)
Increasing severity of drought conditions in some areas and seasons.	Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI): A unitless meteorological drought index that provides a relative measure of surface water availability compared to historical conditions.	National ClimateData.ca (SPEI CMIP5 3-month, 12-month) Analytical Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios (SPEI CMIP6 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 12 months, 24 months)
Drought varies by region and season.	Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI): A unitless agricultural drought index that provides a relative measure of surface (10 cm) soil moisture.	Analytical Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios (SSI CMIP6)
	Soil Moisture Index (SMI): A unitless indicator that provides a measure of soil moisture changes within the rooting zone of trees.	National Forest Change Data Catalogue (SMI CMIP5 data)
	Standardized Runoff Index (SRI): A unitless hydrological drought index that provides a relative measure of surface runoff.	Analytical Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios (SRI CMIP6)
	Climate Moisture Index (CMI): A drought index calculated as the difference between annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration.	National Forest Change Data Catalogue (CMI CMIP5 data) Analytical Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios (CMI CMIP6)
	Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI): A drought index based on precipitation, temperature, moisture-holding capacity of the soil, and local infiltration.	National Forest Change Data Catalogue (PSDI CMIP5 data)
Drought varies by region and season.	Canadian Drought Outlook and Monitor: These maps use a “convergence of evidence” approach, pulling together satellite data, observations, model data and subject matter expert interpretation.	National Canadian Drought Outlook and Monitor (Seasonal forecast of drought)
Increasing frequency of droughts in some regions.	Return levels and return periods of extreme droughts: 1-in-10-year warm season (April–September) drought occurrences.	See static maps in Figure 5.18 Projected changes in once-in-a-decade warm-season occurrences of meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts in CCCR2026 Chapter 5: Changes in the water cycle.
Increasing frequency and duration of dry spells.	Dry spells Number of dry spells: Number of dry spells with 5 or more consecutive dry days. Dry spell duration: Average duration of dry spells. Maximum dry spell duration: Maximum number of consecutive dry days.	National ClimateData.ca (Maximum consecutive dry days; Number of periods with more than 5 consecutive dry days; custom threshold) PCIC Climate Explorer (Maximum length of dry spell) Regional Quebec: Climate Portraits (Dry spell frequency) Analytical Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios (Max dry spell duration)
More dry days.	Dry days: Number of days without rain or snow.	National Climate Atlas of Canada (dry days) Regional Quebec: Climate Portraits (Days without precipitation)
Decreasing snowpack in most locations, but with considerable variation by region.	Snow water equivalent (SWE): Amount of water in the snowpack (e.g., in kg/m2) or, equivalently, height of the water layer (e.g., in mm) that would result from melting the whole snowpack instantaneously. Snowfall: Amount of snow in height of new snowfall water equivalent.	Snow can be measured in several ways, including total snowfall, snow depth, and snow water equivalent. While the indicators below do not directly measure snowpack, they can help indicate future changes. National ClimateData.ca (Total snowfall) Climate data viewer (snow depth) PCIC Climate Explorer (Average snowfall in SWE) Analytical Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios (snow depth) Regional Quebec: Climate Portraits (Maximum surface snow in SWE; continuous snow cover season)

* Additional advanced data analytics tools listed on the Climate Hazards page provide more complex data download options, programming environments and specialized software to support bulk downloads, custom data processing, and analysis of large Canada-wide datasets, and include additional data not listed here.