A changing climate means a change in risk

Climate change has been on the radar of risk managers and municipal leaders for some time, and there are multiple initiatives and tools available to support asset management professionals as they prepare for the increasing impacts of the warming world.[1] ClimateData.ca is one such resource that brings together a network of climate service providers to support decision-makers in their climate change adaptation efforts. Climate model data, available through ClimateData.ca, provides projections of key variables like temperature and precipitation, which can be used to assess how an asset will be affected throughout its lifespan. The Federation of Canadian Municipalities (FCM)’s Green Municipal Fund developed another free tool, a complete-at-your-own-pace online course, titled “Building climate resilience with asset management”, to help municipal staff learn how they can leverage their existing asset management processes to help them become more climate resilient.

Climate change is already impacting our assets

The climate has already changed, and we can no longer rely on the precision of historical data to make accurate predictions of the future. Global temperature has increased over 1 ºC over the past 150 years, and Canada has warmed 2 times the global rate and 3 times in the North over the past 120 years.[2] Climate-related hazards like heat waves are already impacting communities and straining emergency services.[3] In the last few years, we have also seen record-setting wildfire seasons[4] and destructive flooding events.[5]

Global heating is projected to continue based on different emissions scenarios, resulting in a further increase in frequency and the severity of climate impacts. Managing risk and building resilience means dealing with challenges today while also preparing for more change and uncertainty in the decades to come.

Assessing climate change impacts to assets

Let’s take a closer look at the relationship between climate data, weather hazards, and risks to assets and services.

First, it is important to define what we mean by risk in this context. Risk here implies that a hazard has a potential to negatively impact something (or someone). How vulnerable that “something” or “someone” is, as well as their degree of exposure to a given hazard, all factor into the overall risk.

Next, it’s important to understand the relationship between climate and weather. Climate refers to average conditions over long periods of time and large areas, and weather refers to conditions over short periods of time in distinct locations. Changes in climate affect weather patterns, shift temperature and precipitation averages, intensify certain types of extreme weather, and alter the likelihood of extreme events. Together, these changes can create new hazards or worsen existing ones, such as floods, wildfires, or extreme heat.

Figure 1: Factors that influence risk

Changes to hazards, therefore, can lead to a change in overall risk, but this relationship is not always straightforward. Hazards overlap with vulnerability and exposure, making the overall risk framework fluid and dependent on many different factors (Figure 1). Consider, for example, how heat waves impact society’s most vulnerable populations, as they may potentially not have access to air conditioning, may have pre-existing health conditions that elevate their sensitivity to heat, or may live alone and not have someone to help care for them during the event. Or consider how an event like a wildfire is made more challenging when certain evacuation routes are cut off because of a previous flooding event (an example of what is termed a compound event). Finally, it’s important to acknowledge that risks can change as assets age and deteriorate.

As described by Infrastructure Management and Climate Resilient Specialist, Guy Félio, in episode 2, “Climate Risk Assessments and Climate Data”, of ClimateData.ca’s podcast on this topic, “It’s not just about the assets, but the function of those assets over time”.[6] Understanding the full risk picture, therefore, requires going into more detail.

A risk assessment matrix is a common tool used by municipal decision-makers to quantify and illustrate risk. Here, decision-makers are challenged first to identify how vulnerability and exposure combine to describe the consequences associated with a particular hazard. These consequences can take many forms. For example, it could mean large-scale damage to a building caused by a flash flood, a culvert overflow that shuts down key city services like transit,[7]  or a sharp increase in emergency service calls and the need to house evacuees in the aftermath of widespread flooding.

The second dimension of the matrix is likelihood, which is a measure of the probability of a particular hazard that is expected to occur. This information can sometimes be difficult to find. Historical rain intensity, duration, and frequency (IDF) curves are often used to calculate the return period of a particularly intense rainstorm. However, other sources of data and information can be used to determine likelihood, such as talking to long-term residents to see if they recall events of similar magnitude throughout their lifetimes.

Figure 2: Risk Assessment Matrix and Risk Ratings 

The resulting intersection between likelihood and consequence is risk. In Figure 2, squares coloured dark or light green showcase relatively low risk compared to the yellow and red squares. An event that is very unlikely to occur, but is associated with a large consequence, may have a similar risk to an event that is very likely to occur but causes very little disruption.

Climate change affects risk in two main ways: first, a particular hazard could be driven to occur more frequently in the future. Visually, this would be like moving the historic risk marker up on the risk matrix. Likewise, the change in an event’s intensity moves the risk marker to the right on this diagram, signaling the increase in consequence associated with the more intense event.

Information hubs such as ClimateData.ca can be used to find the information needed to assess changes in frequency and intensity. An example would be using future-shifted IDF data which helps demonstrate the effect rising temperatures have on high-intensity rainfall events. And training tools such as FCM’s “Building climate resilience with asset management” online course can build the knowledge and processes around how to use this data to inform decisions.

Using Climate Change Risk Assessments to Better Manage Assets

Here are a few ways in which a municipality can incorporate climate change data and the resulting change in risk in asset management work:

• Asset Register: Integrating climate data into an asset register to update asset attributes to better inform condition assessments and guide maintenance needs.
• Risk Management: Anticipating and assessing risks, including climate-related risks, and how to mitigate them
• Lifecycle Costing: Incorporating climate data into lifecycle costing to account for potential impact of future climate change scenarios on maintenance, repairs and replacement needs.
• Sustainable Service Delivery: Taking climate change into account now and into the future to ensure that assets can deliver services in an environmentally sustainable and economically efficient way over the long term.

As the examples above show, there is a tremendous opportunity to improve municipal resilience to climate change through the processes of asset management. At its core, asset management involves balancing costs, opportunities, and risks against desired levels of service. Effective asset management depends on using reliable data to guide decisions. The data needed to support better-informed decisions typically includes asset and lifecycle cost data, service level information, and risk assessments. Climate data complements these datasets, and by integrating them, municipalities can gain a more complete picture of how location-specific climate hazards and risks may impact their infrastructure – and, in turn, their ability to maintain expected levels of service.

A climate risk assessment process also presents an important opportunity for asset managers to incorporate demographic and geographic data, helping to improve awareness and decision-making for equity-deserving groups, who often face disproportionate impacts from climate risks[8].

FCM’s free, complete-at-your-own-pace, online course titled “Building climate resilience with asset management” explains these interconnected relationships. By taking the course, participants will learn how to:

• Describe the concepts of sustainability and resilience in relation to asset management.
• Explain the impact that climate change and extreme weather events have on the various regions and groups of people in Canada.
• Apply the “Climate change framework for levels of service and risk” (the Framework) in your local government.

Learners are engaged through lessons, tools, examples, scenarios, and a practical workbook.

Figure 3: “The Climate change framework for levels of service and risk”, from FCM’s “Building climate resilience with asset management” online course.

Phase one of the Framework (Figure 3) is where much of the data collection takes place, including understanding regional and local climate information and hazards. This phase of the process is where users establish the foundations they need for risk assessments and planning for adaptation actions.

Many local governments in Canada do not have climate data experts on staff, so finding and understanding climate data can sometimes feel daunting. The course provides guidance to municipal staff – who may not be climate experts – about finding and using climate data to inform decision-making.  In a webinar hosted by FCM, called “Climate data in action: Strengthening municipal adaptation initiatives”, Casey Clunas, with the Canadian Centre for Climate Services, describes some of the easy-access ways that Canadian municipalities can get to know their own local climate data.

In the same webinar recording, presenters from the County of Dufferin, Ontario, and the City of Calgary, Alberta describe how they found and leveraged their climate data to inform their climate adaptation strategies and risk assessments.

Putting climate risk assessment into practice

Data can help tell the story of risk

Ultimately, research and practice tell us that having climate-informed risk-related data in hand does not automatically translate into action. Risk is a concept full of subjectivity, and climate data alone cannot tell us exactly what is at risk and what management tactics should be undertaken. However, by working alongside climate service providers, asset managers and municipal leaders can put climate data in context and use it to build a more informed and authoritative risk framework. Having a strong foundation of data and planning in place can ultimately lead to the implementation of adaptation actions to increase climate resilience, such as those described in the Green Municipal Fund’s Adaptation Actions to Implement Climate Resilience.

Key Take-aways

• Climate has already changed from historical norms and will continue to change
• Variables like precipitation and temperature are linked to hazards that impact infrastructure, as well as services, humans, and the environment
• Increasing climate risks = need for increased climate literacy within risk management
• Climate data tools and services are on hand to support you along the journey

Join the conversation

Explore ClimateData.ca today and discover country-wide, downscaled climate data and sector-specific guidance. If you’d like to join the climate risk conversation in Canada, subscribe to our newsletter and follow ClimateData.ca on social media. Share your experiences with us related to integrating climate change into risk management practices, and check out our podcast episodes on this topic:

• Episode 1: Toronto’s Streets
• Episode 2: Climate Data and Climate Risk Assessments
• Episode 3: Municipal Regulation for Adaptation (French)

Discover more practical tools and knowledge that support your municipality in harnessing climate data for resilient asset management, such as the Building climate resilience with asset management course through the Green Municipal Fund’s Learning Centre. Sign up to FCM Connect and stay up to date with Green Municipal Fund news and the latest resources, e-courses, Communities of Practice and funding.