In the spirit of giving this holiday season, we have created two versions of this blog! If you are interested in a similar blog with an example of Christmas tree farming from Southern Ontario, see How Climate Change is Reshaping Christmas Tree Farming in Southern Ontario.
Across Canada, growing and harvesting Christmas trees is an important seasonal tradition—but changing climate conditions are reshaping where and how these trees can thrive. Christmas tree farms are more than just seasonal decor, they are part of Canada’s ornamental horticulture sector, a component of the agricultural sector, which saw a total of $3.24 billion in annual sales in 2024 [1]. Despite their classification as ornamental, these trees play a key role in carbon sequestration by maintaining continuous carbon storage through standing trees and soils. In addition, Christmas tree farms support biodiversity, rural economies, and Canada’s global exports.
Christmas tree farms operate in every province, with the largest numbers in Ontario (418), British Columbia (276), Quebec (257), and Nova Scotia (213) as of 2021[2]. While growing conditions vary across regions, many growers are having to contend with warmer temperatures, shifting growing seasons, and more variable weather. Christmas trees take six to twelve years to reach maturity. These long production cycles increase their exposure to changing climate conditions, pests, diseases, and extreme events. This article explores how climate change is reshaping Christmas tree farming, with a particular focus on Nova Scotia—one of the country’s major production regions and an area already experiencing rapid climate warming trends.
A warming climate is reshaping growing conditions for Christmas trees, affecting suitability, seasonal extremes, and pest dynamics. The sections below summarize the main climate-related challenges for growers.
Christmas tree species, which vary depending on the location they are being grown in, are generally cold-climate tree species and require specific conditions for optimal growth. While the actual livable ranges are generally large and trees are adaptable, Christmas tree farmers must adjust their species and/or methods to ensure viable crops into the future under a changing climate.
Box 1: Did You Know? In Canada in 2021, over 20,000 hectares (200 square kilometers) of land was dedicated to Christmas tree farms.[3] These farms not only produce Christmas trees that are a cherished part of Canadian culture, but they maintain ongoing carbon storage in trees and soils, enhance biodiversity, and support rural economies.
Take the balsam fir as an example. Lunenburg County, Nova Scotia, recognized in 1995 as the ‘Balsam Fir Christmas Tree Capital of the World’, has long been known for producing high-quality balsam fir trees, a species indigenous to the region. [4]
In Figure 1, the green area represents the ‘optimal’ or ‘core’ climate suitability range for balsam fir—the conditions under which the species tends to grow most vigorously across its natural distribution. The brown area indicates the full suitability range, where the species is still capable of surviving or being successfully cultivated, though growth may be slower or more variable. The panel on the right of Figure 1 shows the 1971–2000 native range of balsam fir, which extends across much of eastern Canada. In Lunenburg County, even in the recent past (1971-2000), the climate conditions are outside of the core (green) suitability range for balsam fir, though the conditions do fall within the full suitability (brown) range. Despite falling largely outside of the core range in recent history, balsam fir has thrived in Nova Scotia, due to local factors — such as abundant precipitation, moderate summer temperatures, and microclimates— that help offset conditions that are warmer or drier than the optimal range. Management practices, such as careful site selection and shading, also play a role in sustaining healthy crops outside of the species’ suitability range.
Looking ahead to 2041-2070, under a high-emissions scenario, the suitability range for balsam fir is projected to shift northward (the left panel of Figure 1). For parts of Nova Scotia, including Lunenburg County, future climate conditions are expected to fall outside of the species’ suitability range. This does not mean balsam fir will no longer grow there, but it does suggest that establishment and regeneration of this species may become more challenging, requiring adaptation in site choice, management practices, and species diversification.
Figure 1: Current (1971-2000) and future (2041-2070, high-emissions scenario – Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 5-8.5) ranges of Abies balsamea (balsam fir) [5]. Green area represents the ‘optimal’ or ‘core’ range with the most ideal conditions for growth. Brown area represents the full suitability range of the species.
To put these changes in context, Table 1 illustrates climate conditions for the region from the recent past (1971-2000) and the projected climate conditions for the future (2041-2070). The comparison helps illustrate how local conditions are shifting even further away from the species’ suitability range, even though trees may continue to grow successfully with careful management and adaptive measures.
Table 1: Climate Conditions in Lunenburg County, Nova Scotia
*30-year average data from ClimateData.ca for Lunenburg County, NS
Figure 2: Graphic showing the mean annual temperature range for balsam fir [6] compared with mean annual temperature for Lunenburg, Nova Scotia.[7] This graphic illustrates how historical mean annual temperatures in Lunenburg, Nova Scotia are already near the upper limit of temperatures considered optimal for balsam fir. It also shows that projected future (2041-2070) temperatures, under both a low and high emissions scenario, will push Lunenburg further outside of this natural range.[8]
Seasonal variability of temperature and precipitation is becoming more pronounced in a warming climate. Extreme heat events, for example, pose a serious threat to trees, especially young ones. Changes in precipitation patterns—whether excessive rainfall or prolonged drought—stress trees and alter soil conditions, affecting overall farm productivity. Some Christmas tree species are more drought-tolerant than others, but prolonged dry spells can still be devastating, especially when coinciding with above normal or extreme heat. Canadian growers are seeing drought impacts including mature trees suffering from browning needles, while seedlings develop shallow root systems that are vulnerable to events like flooding. In addition, intense storms and heatwaves can damage or destroy crops, and in some regions, the risk of wildfires adds another layer of uncertainty.
Box 2: 2021 Heat Dome and Christmas Trees – 2021 was a year of extreme weather for the province of British Columbia. The summer heat dome and extreme flooding impacted the supply of Christmas trees to the extent that IKEA was unable to sell live trees that year due to supply shortages. With temperatures reaching 45 °C in some areas, one grower expected to lose up to 1000 seedlings from the scorching temperatures.
Figure 3: Days >30 °C for Lunenburg County Nova Scotia. Historically, Lunenburg Nova Scotia did not experience many days above 30 degrees, in fact having more than a couple days each summer above 30 °C was a rarity. Today, and looking to the future, Lunenburg can expect an additional 8-24 days above 30 °C under a high emissions scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 5-8.5) by 2041-2070.
Growers in Nova Scotia are already contending with historic drought conditions. This has many growers asking: will climate change mean more frequent, intense, and long-lasting droughts in the future? Droughts, like many natural hazards, are caused by many factors. While overall precipitation trends in Lunenburg County aren’t expected to change drastically in the future, there are many factors that influence extreme events like droughts. A combination of expected changes in temperature and precipitation patterns could lead to a change in likelihood of droughts in the future for this region.
Warmer winters and longer growing seasons contribute to rising pest populations that threaten Christmas tree farms. Pests like aphids, mites, and adelgids are thriving under these new conditions[9], causing direct damage to trees and cosmetic issues that reduce their market value. Temperature in particular plays a critical role in insect development. While each species requires a consistent amount of heat to complete its life cycle, the rate and timing of development of pests varies with seasonal temperatures.
Box 4: Universities across Canada have created dedicated labs to research Christmas trees and the impacts that growers are experiencing from climate change and environmental stresses. Labs like the University of Waterloo’s Christmas Tree Lab and Dalhousie University’s Christmas Tree Ecophysiology Lab are exploring the unique challenges facing Christmas Tree growers and targeting them with research and solutions.
This is where Degree days (DD) above a particular threshold temperatures, also referred to as “Cooling Degree Days”, provide information about heat energy available. They are often used in agriculture to determine if there is sufficient heat energy at a particular location to allow crops or pest species to mature, or to reach certain points in their lifecycles. By calculating DDs, growers can estimate the timing of key biological events such as egg hatch, larval development, or disease infection, which in turn informs more effective pest control strategies[10]. For instance, the Balsam Twig Aphid, a significant pest for Christmas trees in Atlantic Canada, becomes most damaging during its second generation, typically emerging after 150–200 DDs above 10 °C have accumulated[11], [12].
As the climate warms, the total number of DDs above critical thresholds is expected to increase, potentially allowing multiple pest generations in a season or shifting their emergence earlier in the year.[13] This could not only exacerbate current pest pressures but also introduce new pests to regions where they were previously not viable.
Figure 4: Projected Cooling Degree Days (10 °C) for Lunenburg County Nova Scotia. The number of degree days above 10 °C expected in Lunenburg County is increasing from the historical average, with an increase of over 1000 degree days possible by the end of the century under a high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5).
On the disease front, wet conditions and poor drainage create ideal environments for moulds and fungi. One notable example is Phytophthora root rot—a mould recently found as a threat to trees in the Maritimes. The cold climates that historically characterized this region were unsuitable to this disease, but with a changing climate, the disease is becoming more prevalent in the Maritimes, Quebec, and Ontario.
Seasonal forecasts—currently available through Environment and Climate Change Canada and coming soon to ClimateData.ca—provide guidance on how upcoming temperature and precipitation conditions are likely to compare with the long-term historical average. While seasonal forecasts do not predict day-to-day weather, they offer useful insights into the probability of different weather patterns emerging in the upcoming months.
For example, for summer 2026 (June-August), temperature forecasts indicate daily mean temperatures for the Lunenburg County area of Nova Scotia are expected to be either above normal (41%) or near normal (36% probability). While this doesn’t rule out the probability of below normal temperatures (23%), we can reasonably expect that measures to manage heat may be necessary this season. Because seasonal forecasts are updated regularly and forecast “skill” varies by region, growers should check back for updates as the season approaches.
Figure 5: Temperature forecast for July to August 2026. Click here to view the forecast: Seasonal forecasts for Canada.
For more information on how to interpret seasonal probabilistic forecasts, consult ECCC’s User guide for seasonal forecasts.
As climate conditions continue to shift, Christmas tree farmers are proactively working to manage emerging challenges—from heat stress and drought, to pests, diseases, and more frequent extreme weather. Climate data projections and seasonal forecasts all provide practical insights that support both day-to-day decisions and long-term planning. Together, these tools help growers anticipate risks, adjust management practices, and build greater resilience into their operations. Ongoing adaptation will be essential to maintain a sustainable supply of Christmas trees, and the rural economies and ecosystems that depend on them.
As you head to your local Christmas tree farm or market this season, it’s worth reflecting on the work growers are doing to adapt to a changing climate and maintain healthy, locally grown trees. When the holidays are over, consider giving your tree a second life—by mulching, recycling, or donating it to a community reuse program.
For further reading on dieback of balsam fir in North America, visit the recently published article from co-author of this post, Mason MacDonald, Forest Dieback of Abies Balsamea in Eastern North America.
Box 5: A new life for old Christmas trees: A common myth is that live Christmas trees are more environmentally impactful than artificial trees. However, Christmas tree producers are careful to replace each cut tree with successional new growth or new plantings. Additionally, live Christmas trees also have an abundance of beneficial uses after making your home festive for the holiday season [14]. They can be chipped for mulch, the wood can be recycled and re-used, or they can be used in restoration projects like the one undertaken in the Upper Credit Conservation Area in Alton, Ontario. In this case, recycled Christmas trees were used as sediment capture devices and to prevent soil erosion along the creek’s banks.
[1] Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. (2024). Statistical Overview of the Canadian Ornamental Industry, 2024. https://agriculture.canada.ca/en/sector/horticulture/reports/statistical-overview-canadian-ornamental-industry-2024
[2] Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. (2024). Statistical Overview of the Canadian Ornamental Industry, 2024. https://agriculture.canada.ca/en/sector/horticulture/reports/statistical-overview-canadian-ornamental-industry-2024
[3] Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. (2024). Statistical Overview of the Canadian Ornamental Industry, 2024. https://agriculture.canada.ca/en/sector/horticulture/reports/statistical-overview-canadian-ornamental-industry-2024
[4] Lunenburg Christmas Tree Producers Association. (n.d.) About Lunenburg County Christmas Tree Producers’ Association. https://www.christmastreeproducers.com/
[5] Natural Resources Canada. (2025) Canada’s Plant Hardiness Site, Species-specific Models and Maps. Abies balsamea (L.) Mill. https://www.planthardiness.gc.ca/index.php?phz=p10000051971-2000&s=b&speciesid=1000005&m=7&lang=en#
[6] Adapted from USDA Forest Service Silvics Profiles for balsam fir
[7] 30-year average data from ClimateData.ca for Lunenburg County, NS
[8] Low carbon is SSP1-2.6 and high carbon is SSP5-8.5, the lowest and highest emission scenarios available on ClimateData.ca, respectfully.
[9] McCarthy, P. C., Adam, C. I. G. (2023) Insects and Diseases of Balsom Fir Christmas Trees. https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2021/rncan-nrcan/Fo103-2-226-eng.pdf
[10] Ontario Crop Protection Hub. (n.d.) Degree-Day Modeling. Retrieved December 1, 2025 from https://cropprotectionhub.omafra.gov.on.ca/supporting-information/apples/pest-management/degree-day-modeling
[11] McCarthy, P. C., Adam, C. I. G. (2023) Insects and Diseases of Balsom Fir Christmas Trees. https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2021/rncan-nrcan/Fo103-2-226-eng.pdf
[12] Fondren, K., McCullough, D. G., (2002) Biology and Management of Balsam Twig Aphid. Michigan State University Extension. https://www.canr.msu.edu/uploads/files/e2813.pdf
[13] Climate Atlas of Canada. (n.d.) Forest Pests and Climate Change. Prairie Climate Centre. https://climateatlas.ca/forest-pests-and-climate-change
[14] Christmas Tree Farmers of Ontario. (n.d.) Real Tree Facts. https://www.christmastrees.on.ca/index.php?action=display&cat=11
This project was undertaken with the support of:
